新唐人�� www.ntdtv.com 2011-10-24 06:36
【新唐人2011年10月24日�】今年以�，美�和�洲��不景�，引�了各��世界��「二次衰退」的��。而在中�，企�主因�不起�款逃亡的�象�繁出�，�金��裂�乎蔓延所有行�，房地�已成�「地雷」。��分析人士��，�是中���崩�的不祥之兆。
日前，世界上�位知名的����人士��埃�*�比尼和吉姆*夏�斯，都�中�的��前景表示悲�，他���，��硬著�已��法避免。
英�《金融��》表示，在�去�三�月�，投�者��中�的��，�罩在一股�度悲�的情�中，中�的��危�凸�。
���，中�大�目前�房地�到�造�，�乎所有行�都在���金��裂的痛苦。��是政府的融�平��是官方的投�公司，��是�行�是上市公司，��是�企�是私企，��是�路投��是其他��的��，��是�州�是鄂�多斯......都面�著�金��裂的��。
在被��中����向�的�州，�八月和九月�就�生了40起企�主逃亡的案子，原因在於�法��地下��的�款。���示，�州民�借�市��模�近1100�元，比去年同期增�近40%。
美�南卡���大�教授�田��，由於民�的中小企�向�受�有�行的歧�，中共�根��的政策�他�的影�很大。
�田：「他�有�金周�的�候，最近世界��比�差，中�出口受挫，�些小企�生存越�越危�的�候，��有�行得不到�，他�只能�地下��去要�。而更多的企�陷入��境�的�候呢，就�把利率越推越高，那些人明知道��是不可能�得了的，他�要�而走�去借�高利�，就�明中�的����和金融��都�在一�很危�的情�。」
德�《世界�》��，�在的中�，不�地下��面��金��裂的危�，�有商��行和股份制�行同�在劫�逃，特�是面�巨�的��威�。地方��按中共�局的�法有10.7��元，其中40%今年到期。很多地方政府根本�有��能力，���致�行再一次出�巨�不良��。
另外，��金��裂����的��是房地�。中�城市商��行�金清算中心理事�王世豪在9月份坦言，房地�20��元的�款，已成�中��行�的一�「地雷」。
王世豪�，�行目前�款�量是55��元，房地�行�的�款已��到�行�款�量的36%，��商必�要到�的地方去拿�，低廉�金�代已��束。
有���示，中�大�70座城市中有16座城市的新房�格8月份比7月份下降。�然�行方面��可以承受房�下跌四成，但��的退房潮仍�示有越�越多的人看淡市�，通�在房地�市�套�填�其他�金缺口。
�田教授��，�在��商手中握有大量房����以��，商品房已��重供�於求，鄂�多斯的「鬼城」�象�出不�。房地�商的�金��始��，���力越�越大。
�田：「�在���金��裂的事情已�迫在眉睫了。一旦由地下��引起的，和�有�行私下拿�去放�，�些��集中爆�的�候，就�把��的房地�市�的��就一起爆�出�。��的�，中�的整�金融�系泡沫就�破�。」
同�，�金短缺的危��波及到了政府投�的重大�目。《第一��日�》��，全��路建�由於�金��，拖欠工人工�引�工人不�，建��位、供�商���米之炊。全����停工的�路�目里程在1�公里以上。
中�隧道集�副�工程�王�恕日前坦言：「��北到西南，�西北到�南，大部分�路�目都停了。」
《德�金融��》表示，北京��款的供�和�格已缺乏掌控，因�地下�行提供���界的�金�和已超�了官方�行。中�目前不��有能力挽救�洲，而且能否保持自己的航向也成��。
新唐人�者常春、李明�、葛雷����。
China』s Economy Is Facing a Major Crisis
With the recent economic downturn in the U.S. and Europe,
everyone is worried that the global economy will slip back into a recession.
In China, many entrepreneurs have just 『walked away,』
after defaulting on their loans, causing a chain-reaction all across China.
Real estate has become a veritable "landmine".
Analysts see this as an ominous sign that the Chinese economy
is close to collapse.
Two world famous economic commentators,
Nouriel Roubini and Jim Chanos,
have adopted a pessimistic stance on the Chinese economy,
saying it is in for a hard landing.
According to The Financial Times, in the past 2 to 3 months,
investors are in a rather gloomy mood over the Chinese economy, as
they watch a crisis emerging.
Reports indicate that from real estate to manufacturing,
almost all areas in mainland China are suffering from
a loan-default chain reaction, including banks,
government』s financing schemes, investment companies and joint-stock banks.
Whether its state-owned or private, whether its a rail investment
or an expansion of some other industry,
whether it is located in Wenzhou or Ordos...
all are facing the risk of this chain reaction.
Wenzhou city is said to be the weathervane of
China』s economy.
But in August and September alone, more than 40 cases
were reported of entrepreneurs 『skipping town』 after being unable to
repay their loans.
Statistics show that the size of Wenzhou』s private lending market,
which is nearly RMB 11 billion (US$1.72 billion), increased nearly 40
percent over the same period, last year.
Professor Xie Tian of the University of South Carolina,
believes that as China tightens its monetary policy,
small and medium private enterprises
will be impacted the most.
Xie Tian: "When they are tight on cash flow.
China』s exports are down, due to a downturn in the global economy,
thus, business owners are unable to get loans from
state-owned banks.
Therefore, they have to borrow money from
private lending companies.
As more and more businesses do this, loan rates will rise.
Even though these business owners know that
they won』t be able to repay their loans,
they nevertheless take the risk and
borrow money from these loan-sharking companies.
It shows that the Chinese economy is
in seriosus financisal danger."
German Welt thinks that not only is the private lending
market in China facing a capital chain reaction,
but also state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks,
especially when they』re saddled with many bad loans.
According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
local goverenment debt is averaging about RMB 1.07 billion,
or (US$167.62 million), 40% of which is due this year.
Many local governments are unable to repay their debt,
which is leading to huge loan defaults.
Alongside the capital chain reaction, is the real estate market,
which is another risky side of the economy.
China's central commercial bank clearing center director,
Wang Shihao, admitted in September that RMB 20 trillion
(US$3.13 trillion) in outsatnding real estate loans,
has been a "landmine" to the Chinese banking industry.
Wang said, "The total amount of outstanding bank loans
is RMB 55 trillion (US$8.61 trillion), 36% of which is real estate.
Developers must get their money from somewhere else,
thus, the low-interest loans era has ended.
Statistics show that in 16 of 70 mainland cities,
the price of new apartments in August is lower than in July.
Although banks claim that they can bear with real estate prices
falling around 40%,
the trend of people back off their property purchases
in Shanghai and Nanjing, shows that more and more people see the real
estate market as bearish.
People are taking their money out of real estate
to fill the capital hole they have in other investments.
Professor Xie Tian now thinks that real estate developers
have a lot of apartments that they are finding hard to sell.
In other words, the supply is larger than the demand.
Empty communities can be seen in many places.
Real estate developers』 cash flow is not very good,
and the pressure they feel in repaying their loans is growing.
Xie Tian: "The capital chain reaction is right around the corner.
Once it』s triggered in the private lending sector
and among state-owned banks, the real estate market will be affected.
When this happens, China』s financial bubble will pop."
Meanwhile, a shortage of cash is affecting
big government projects.
First Financial Daily reported that railway construction workers
aren』t being paid on time, because these companies are short on cash.
There are currently over 10,000 KM (6,213 miles)
of suspended railway projects in the country.
Deputy chief engineer of China Railway Tunnel Group,
Wang Mengshu, has admitted: "From the northeast
to the southwest, from the northwest to the southeast,
most of the current railway projects have stopped."
The Financial Times Deutschland says, "The CCP has lost control
of the issuance of debt and the interest rate on loans,
due to underground lending institutes which provide
more loans than banks.
Not only does the CCP lack the ability to save Europe,
it itself is struggling with its own financial problems and development.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Mingfei and Ge Lei
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