2008年11月18日星期二

[G4G] 不求进取的美国汽车三巨头也向美国政府喊救命

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于 08-11-18 通过 恒甫学社 作者:恒甫学社

不求进取的美国汽车三家也向美国政府喊救命

Here are some quick answers to seven key questions about the crisis.

What do the automakers want?

The automakers are asking for about $25 billion in loans to help them survive until 2010. Advocates for a bailout argue that if the Big Three can hang on until then, they'll be in position to be competitive long-term.

That's because billions of dollars in annual savings won in the 2007 labor agreement with the United Auto Workers union kick in that year, including shifting the responsibility for retirees' health care costs to union-controlled trust funds.

What's more, it's likely that car sales will pick up again by 2010 and that plant closings between now and then will bring the Big Three's capacity in line with this demand.

How many jobs are at stake?

GM (GM, Fortune 500) has about 120,000 U.S. employees. Ford (F, Fortune 500) has about 80,000 and closely-held Chrysler LLC has about 66,000.

In addition, the three automakers have about 14,000 U.S. dealerships that between them employ another 740,000 workers.

The suppliers used by the Big Three also employ an estimated 610,000 people.

Add that up and you have more than 1.6 million jobs tied to the auto industry.

What happens if there's no bailout?

GM risks running out of money later this year or early in 2009 without a bailout.

GM burned through $6.9 billion during the third quarter, leaving it with only $16 billion on hand as of Sept. 30. But it needs $11 billion to $14 billion to continue normal operations.

Ford and Chrysler have more cash relative to their needs, mostly from money they borrowed prior to the current credit crunch.

But each of those automakers could also run out of cash during 2009 without federal assistance.

What happens if an automaker goes bankrupt?

There are two types of corporate bankruptcy under U.S. law.

Chapter 11 allows a company to continue to operate as it sheds debts and contracts it can not afford.

In Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the company goes out of business fairly rapidly as its assets are sold off to try to satisfy its creditors.

What are advantages of an automaker going into bankruptcy?

Some argue that bankruptcy judges will be able to force the automakers to shed brands and dealerships as well as get the Big Three out of labor contracts they can not afford.

Other U.S. industries, such as steel companies and airlines, have used bankruptcy in the past to return to profitability without putting federal dollars at risk.

What are the arguments against a Chapter 11 bankruptcy?

Given the current credit crunch, many experts question whether automakers would be able to get necessary financing from lenders to help them during the reorganization process.

There are also doubts whether consumers would buy new vehicles from a bankrupt automaker due to concerns over their resale value and warranty. In effect, an automaker that files for Chapter 11 could eventually wind up going out of business anyway.

What are some of the other broader economic impacts if an automaker goes out of business?

Nearly 2 million Americans get their health insurance directly from one of the Big Three automakers. Most of them would lose that coverage if their company goes out of business. A failure of one of the Big Three could also cause a string of bankruptcies among suppliers.

And beyond the job losses at the automakers, dealerships and suppliers, media companies that generate a lot of revenue from auto advertising as well as retailers in towns where plants are located could also have to cut many jobs. The Center for Automotive Research, a Michigan think tank that supports the bailout, estimates that between 1.4 million and 1.7 million jobs indirectly tied to the Big Three would be lost in the first year following widespread auto failures.

 

The case for a federal bailout of U.S. automakers came under sharp scrutiny on Tuesday at a congressional hearing that portrayed the Big Three as both short-sighted in their business strategies and central to the economy.

"Their board rooms in my view have been devoid of vision," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. "They have promoted and often driven the demand of inefficient, gas guzzling vehicles, and dismissed the threat of global warming."

Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, spoke as Congress kicked off the first of two days of hearings over whether the government should extend the nation's troubled lawmakers a financial lifeline.

The head of the powerful United Auto Workers union, testifying side by side with the industry's top CEOs, said the failure of one automaker would shatter consumer confidence in the other two.

"If one of these companies goes into bankruptcy, I'd be willing to bet it takes two, or possibly all three, with them," said Ron Gettelfinger , president of the autoworkers' union, said during questioning.

The industry, already struggling because of high labor costs and weak sales, is being stung as car buying grinds to a halt amid credit difficulties, job losses and fears of a recession. The industry has been lobbying hard for a $25 billion loan from the $700 billion bailout slated for the finance sector.

One Republican lawmaker, Sen. Michael Enzi of Wyoming, said he was dubious that a bailout would work. "We have little evidence this $25 billion will do anything to promote long-term success," he said.

But the industry and its advocates, as well as many experts, say that without federal help, General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) will likely go bankrupt within months, and Ford (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler could soon follow.

General Motors boss Rick Wagoner said his company was attempting to transform itself. He ticked off a long list of innovations - from developing nine hybrid models for next year to rapid development of the Chevy Volt, a car that runs on just electricity.

"We felt we were well on the road to turning around the North American business," said Wagoner. "Since then, the industry and the economy has been hit hard by the global financial crisis. It threatens the turnaround and GM's financial survival."

Chrysler Chief Executive Robert Nardelli, echoing Wagoner's remarks, said the industry is suffering a "critical lack of liquidity" because of "the nation's financial meltdown, and the current lack of consumer credit, which has resulted in the critical lack of liquidity."

Ford's chief executive, Alan Mulally, said he understands the need for the industry to reorganize, and said Ford has been doing just that.

"Few companies have restructured more aggressively," Mulally said.

Ford has closed 17 plants and reduced its workforce by 51,000 workers, according to Mulally. He added that a new contract with the United Auto Workers Union helps the company's ability to compete.

"As a result of all of our actions, we were profitable in the first quarter of this year and well on our way to sustainable profitability before the economic and credit crisis hit," said Mulally.

Ripple effects of a meltdown

Supporters of a bailout for the industry say that a bankruptcy could prove a devastating blow to the U.S. economy. They say nearly 2 million jobs are either directly or indirectly tied to the auto sector, and that Detroit is a pillar of the American manufacturing economy.

"We can't afford to lose thousands of jobs," said Sen. Robert Casey, D-Pa. "What is a recession could become a depression if these companies fail in the next couple of months."

Supporters also claim a loss in tax revenue of more than $100 billion over the next few years if the auto industry goes belly-up.

The industry says it needs the loans to hold it over until the economy improves, their new models can woo consumers and savings from labor contracts have a chance to kick in.

A collapse of the industry, Nardelli stressed, "would put at risk health care coverage for retirees, which is part of Chrysler's nearly $20 billion total health care obligation, $2 billion in annual pension payments to our retirees and surviving spouses, approximately $7 billion in current payables, $35 billion in future annual supplier business and 56,600 direct Chrysler employees earning $6 billion in wages."

But critics say problems with the U.S. auto industry are systemic, and giving them $25 billion would only delay the inevitable. They also say it would encourage other mismanaged businesses to come to the government, hat in hand, a proposition the American taxpayer cannot afford.

They say bankruptcy would be the best thing for the industry, allowing automakers to shed expensive labor contracts and reorganize as smaller, more efficient firms.

So far, it appears unlikely the current Congress will let the industry borrow $25 billion under the bailout plan. While many Democrats support the move, most Republicans and some Democrats are against it, and the measure is not thought to have enough votes to pass the Senate.

And automakers say that waiting for assistance until the new Congress is in session next year could jeopardize their financial health. Bankruptcy, they fear, would not result in reorganization, but quick liquidation in this tight credit environment."

Rather than grant $25 billion in new loans from the bailout, the White House wants to modify $25 billion in loans that were originally granted in September to allow automakers to use that money to pay their bills. Originally, those loans were supposed to help Detroit make more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Some think the White House proposal stands a better chance of passing Congress.

"I think the proposal that the administration has made - to basically change the qualifications of the money that we have already appropriated - is a sound way to go forward," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said Tuesday.  To top of page


 
 

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