中国政府卓有成效的危机管理
"中国政府最厉害的，"彭教授继续说，"是其强大的动员能力。"
2010/8/14 参考消息 <go2group@gmail.com>
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来源China mudslides were predicted 13 years ago
译者TheZEN
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via 译言-每日精品译文推荐 by TheZEN on 8/14/10
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来源China mudslides were predicted 13 years ago
译者TheZEN
Monster monsoon rains may have loosened the mud and rock that buried and killed more than 1,000 people in the northwestern Chinese Province of Gansu over the weekend, but the mudslide in Zhouqu was more than a natural disaster.本周，中国甘肃发生了特大暴雨导致的泥石流，造成了上千人死亡，但是这场发生在舟曲的泥石流不只是一场自然灾害。
Official records show that government-run lumber companies cut 313,000 acres of forest from the slopes of Zhouqu county between 1952 and 1990, denuding the geologically vulnerable mountainsides and subjecting them to soil erosion.官方数据显示，1952年到1990年之间，那些国营木材公司砍伐了舟曲村附近313,000英亩的森林，导致森林光秃进而土壤被侵蚀。
Thirteen years ago two Chinese scientists published a paper warning that following "the destruction of the eco-system" in the district, "a rainstorm will carry debris down the gully, destroying farmland, houses, roads, bridges, water facilities, and power systems and causing death and injury."13年前，两名中国科学家发表了一篇论文警告该地区"破坏生态系统"的行为，"暴雨将把泥沙代入沟渠，破坏农田、房屋、道路、桥梁、水利设施和电力系统并且造成人员伤亡。"
That rainstorm struck on Saturday night, Aug. 7, with the catastrophic consequences researchers Ma Dongtao and Qi Long had predicted in 1997 – though one of them is surprised by the scope of the disaster.暴雨发生在8月7日星期六晚上，带来了灾难性的后果。而这种后果，马东涛（音）和齐隆（音）在1997年就已经预测到了，尽管他们之一惊奇于对灾难发生的地点。
"The mudslide was caused by geology, but it was worsened by deforestation," Dr. Qi says today. "I never expected such a huge slide.""这次泥石流是由地质因素引起额，但是有森林开伐而变得更加严重，"齐博士今天说道。"我从来没有想到会是这么大的泥石流。"
Highest death toll in more than a decade十多年来最高的死亡人数
Survivors huddled in tents under more rainstorms on Thursday, after a new overnight mudslide blocked a key road into Zhouqu only hours after heavy equipment had begun arriving.在一批重型装备到达后仅几个小时，泥石流再次爆发，持续了一晚上，重新阻断了通往舟曲的一条主要道路。接着星期四又下了几次暴雨，幸存者躲在帐篷里乱成一团。
The weekend disaster brought this summer's nationwide death toll from floods and landslides to more than 3,000, according to official figures. That is the heaviest such loss of life for more than a decade.根据官方的数据，这星期的灾难使得今年夏天全国由于洪水和泥石流而死亡的人数超过了3000。这是十多年来死亡人数最多的一次。
The widespread flooding, which has struck northern regions of China that have only rarely known such disaster, follows unusually heavy monsoon rains across Asia. They have been prompted by "La Niña," a periodic cooling of the surface of the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists say.在席卷亚洲的反常的大暴雨之后，中国北方发生大规模的洪涝灾害，但是几乎没有这样的灾难。这场大暴雨受"拉尼娜"的影响，气象学家说，这是一种太平洋表面周期性冷却的现象。
The torrential rainfall that fell last Saturday night on Zhouqu was part of the same weather system that has flooded millions of Pakistanis out of their homes in recent days.舟曲上周六晚上发生的大暴雨，和近几天让巴基斯坦人流离失所的洪涝灾害的天气系统有一定的关联。
Flood control, from the 'great Yu' to communists抗洪，从大禹到共产党
Memories of annual floods are deeply embedded in the Chinese psyche. Every schoolchild here learns the legend of "the great Yu," whose prodigious feats of canal building and drainage ditch digging 4,000 years ago put an end to killer floods on the Yellow River.这种关一年一次的洪水的记忆已经嵌入到中国人的心灵深处。这里的每一个学龄儿童都知道大禹的传说，他的伟大功绩在于4000年前修筑了河渠和排水沟，终止了当时黄河洪水的泛滥。
Not for long, though. The Yellow River – China's second longest – has burst its banks repeatedly in the millenniums since, despite the best efforts of dynasty after imperial dynasty to control it. The two deadliest natural disasters in human history were both Yellow River floods, in 1887 and 1931, that between them are estimated to have killed as many as 6 million people.黄河虽然不长，但是中国第二长的河流，几千年来一直洪水泛滥，尽管各朝各代都在努力控制住它。人类历史上最具杀伤力的自然灾害均发生在黄河，分别在1887年和1931年，据估计在这两年之间有多达六百万人死于洪水。
Dams and other civil engineering works undertaken since the communists took power in 1949 have alleviated the situation over the past six decades, but hardly brought it under control – as this year's floods have shown. Some 12 million people have been forced from their homes this summer, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and more than $40 billion worth of damage has been done.共产党执政后修筑的大坝和其它工程在过去六十年间减轻了这种局势，但是几乎没有控制住黄河，如今年所爆发的洪水所显示的。根据民政部的统计，今天夏天有将近一千二百万背井离乡，并且造成了超过400亿美元的损失。
China's efficient crisis management中国政府卓有成效的危机管理
The Chinese authorities have acquitted themselves well in rescue and relief efforts however, according to local experts, maintaining a reputation for efficiency earned during the Sichuan earthquake in 2008.中国政府在抢险救灾方面已经做得不错，但是，当地专家说，政府在2008年的汶川地震中获得了效率好的声誉。
"Since the SARS outbreak in 2003," when Beijing drew international condemnation for irresponsibility by trying to conceal and ignore the epidemic, "the government has learned a lot about crisis management and paid a lot of attention to it," says Peng Zongchao, a crisis response expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing."从2003年的非典疫情中，"中国政府由于隐藏和忽视疫情而受到国际谴责，"政府从中学到了很多危机管理的知识并且给予了大量关注，"彭宗超说，它是北京清华大学的危机响应专家。
"The most important element for the Chinese government," Professor Peng adds, "is its strong mobilization ability.""中国政府最厉害的，"彭教授继续说，"是其强大的动员能力。"
As a centrally controlled system enforcing strict one party discipline, and with the military under the Communist Party's command, "the government can mobilize social forces and essential resources to respond to emergencies," Peng says.作为一个一党制的国家，且控制着国家军队，"政府能够动员所有社会力量和重要资源应对突发事件，"彭说。
"This summer," he says "we have seen them responding to natural disasters like the floods very quickly.""今年夏天，"他说"我们看到政府应对自然灾害的速度向洪水一样迅速。"
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