点评中国：舟曲县洪水泥石流灾害原因初探
泥石流给舟曲县造成严重破坏
2010年8月7日22时许，中国甘肃省甘南藏族自治州舟曲县发生强 降雨，午夜时间形成泥石流，从县城北面的罗家峪、三眼峪向南冲向县城。洪水和泥石流导致舟曲县半个县城的范围被夷为平地，剩余的房屋或是底层被淤泥淹没， 或是发生倾斜，或被严重损坏，损失惨重。有报道说，死亡和失踪人数超过2000余人。
灾害的原因
这次灾害的原因除了降雨和所在地区的地理条件外，主要还有：
1.白龙江流域的过度开发。
2.舟曲县城市规划建设中的错误。
舟曲县曾以山清水秀而闻名，有"陇上小江南"之称。二十世纪五十年代县境内森林覆盖面大，山清水秀，空气清新湿润，生态环境平衡。但是持续五十多年的大面积开荒、伐木毁林，开发矿床，白龙江流域已经成为中国著名的地质灾害多发区，也是经济发展落后地区。
兰州大学崔瑞萍在其硕士论文"白龙江中游滑坡泥石流防治体系与效益的研究"中指出，"近50年来，人类 生产活动增强，毁林开荒、陡坡耕种、不合理开矿、炸石、筑路、修建水工程以及各种开发建设等，造成山 体破坏失稳，崩塌、滑坡和泥石流日趋频发，滑坡、泥石流所造成的危害和直接经济损失也日益扩展和增强。"
必须指出的是，白龙江的梯级开发和白龙江的渠道化，是造成这次灾害的一个主要原因。舟曲县人口不过13 多万，但是配合白龙江的梯级开发，舟曲县境内的水电开发项目多达四十余个，已经建成的有巴藏水电站等15座水电站，还有虎家崖等14座水电站在建。越是经 济发展落后地区，想通过大规模的开发改变状况的行为就更激烈。
特别是地方政府的领导想通过开发措施来显示其功绩，往往只注重个人的眼前利益，而忽视百姓的长远利益。建设水电站壅高水位，容易引起河道里两岸的山坡发生滑坡和泥沙流。建设水电站所开挖的土石方回填山沟，又为滑坡和泥沙流提供了充分的松散的物质材料。
城市规划错误
舟曲县城位于白龙江的两岸的狭长地带。这种城市规划布局完全照搬平原地区大城市沿河布置的形式，去找寻 什么水景，提高土地价值。城市规划完全不顾白龙江是山区河流，舟曲县位于狭窄的山区峡谷的地理位置。人们看到，白龙江全部渠道化，用水泥将白龙江压缩在一 个很窄的断面中，河流两侧密集地规划和建设了大型的多层建筑。
山区河流洪水水位变幅大，洪水中常常挟带大量的石块，甚至是巨石。狭窄的渠化河道不能满足洪水的下泄，巨石很容易在狭窄的河道中形成自然坝，坝后形成堰塞湖。加上两岸大型的多层建筑的阻挡，坝后堰塞湖的水位才有可能升得很高，造成大灾难。
白龙江河谷狭窄，居民点本应该分散布置。但是舟曲县城的两条发展轴，一条沿着白龙江发展，一条由南向北延伸。城市的建设破坏了北边地区山坡的稳定。这次泥石流正是在县城北面的罗家峪、三眼峪形成，沿着城市发展轴由北向南冲向白龙江。
将县城医院布置在城市最低洼处，这是城市规划的又一错误。县城多数建筑被洪水淹没了两层，但是县城医院 却被洪水淹没了三层。医院在救灾过程不但不能发挥应有的作用，反而成为救灾的重点。由于医院三层被淹，医院的全部药品失去作用，灾后发出的第一个信息就 是，舟曲县缺少药品。
江源地区是中国环境破坏最严重的地区
发生灾害的舟曲县位于中国的广义范围的江源地区。白龙江是嘉陵江的支流，而嘉陵江又是长江的支流。江源地区是中国的水塔，也是中国生态环境破坏最严重的地区
。舟曲县洪水泥石流灾害的原因是江源地区的过度开发和城市规划中的错误，但是其本质是江源地区生态环境破坏的必然结果。但愿此次灾害能为人们敲响一次警钟：江源地区的江源地区保护，关系到你我，关系到子孙后代。
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原作者：
来源China mudslides were predicted 13 years ago
译者TheZEN
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via 译言-每日精品译文推荐 by TheZEN on 8/14/10
原作者：
来源China mudslides were predicted 13 years ago
译者TheZEN
Monster monsoon rains may have loosened the mud and rock that buried and killed more than 1,000 people in the northwestern Chinese Province of Gansu over the weekend, but the mudslide in Zhouqu was more than a natural disaster.本周，中国甘肃发生了特大暴雨导致的泥石流，造成了上千人死亡，但是这场发生在舟曲的泥石流不只是一场自然灾害。
Official records show that government-run lumber companies cut 313,000 acres of forest from the slopes of Zhouqu county between 1952 and 1990, denuding the geologically vulnerable mountainsides and subjecting them to soil erosion.官方数据显示，1952年到1990年之间，那些国营木材公司砍伐了舟曲村附近313,000英亩的森林，导致森林光秃进而土壤被侵蚀。
Thirteen years ago two Chinese scientists published a paper warning that following "the destruction of the eco-system" in the district, "a rainstorm will carry debris down the gully, destroying farmland, houses, roads, bridges, water facilities, and power systems and causing death and injury."13年前，两名中国科学家发表了一篇论文警告该地区"破坏生态系统"的行为，"暴雨将把泥沙代入沟渠，破坏农田、房屋、道路、桥梁、水利设施和电力系统并且造成人员伤亡。"
That rainstorm struck on Saturday night, Aug. 7, with the catastrophic consequences researchers Ma Dongtao and Qi Long had predicted in 1997 – though one of them is surprised by the scope of the disaster.暴雨发生在8月7日星期六晚上，带来了灾难性的后果。而这种后果，马东涛（音）和齐隆（音）在1997年就已经预测到了，尽管他们之一惊奇于对灾难发生的地点。
"The mudslide was caused by geology, but it was worsened by deforestation," Dr. Qi says today. "I never expected such a huge slide.""这次泥石流是由地质因素引起额，但是有森林开伐而变得更加严重，"齐博士今天说道。"我从来没有想到会是这么大的泥石流。"
Highest death toll in more than a decade十多年来最高的死亡人数
Survivors huddled in tents under more rainstorms on Thursday, after a new overnight mudslide blocked a key road into Zhouqu only hours after heavy equipment had begun arriving.在一批重型装备到达后仅几个小时，泥石流再次爆发，持续了一晚上，重新阻断了通往舟曲的一条主要道路。接着星期四又下了几次暴雨，幸存者躲在帐篷里乱成一团。
The weekend disaster brought this summer's nationwide death toll from floods and landslides to more than 3,000, according to official figures. That is the heaviest such loss of life for more than a decade.根据官方的数据，这星期的灾难使得今年夏天全国由于洪水和泥石流而死亡的人数超过了3000。这是十多年来死亡人数最多的一次。
The widespread flooding, which has struck northern regions of China that have only rarely known such disaster, follows unusually heavy monsoon rains across Asia. They have been prompted by "La Niña," a periodic cooling of the surface of the Pacific Ocean, meteorologists say.在席卷亚洲的反常的大暴雨之后，中国北方发生大规模的洪涝灾害，但是几乎没有这样的灾难。这场大暴雨受"拉尼娜"的影响，气象学家说，这是一种太平洋表面周期性冷却的现象。
The torrential rainfall that fell last Saturday night on Zhouqu was part of the same weather system that has flooded millions of Pakistanis out of their homes in recent days.舟曲上周六晚上发生的大暴雨，和近几天让巴基斯坦人流离失所的洪涝灾害的天气系统有一定的关联。
Flood control, from the 'great Yu' to communists抗洪，从大禹到共产党
Memories of annual floods are deeply embedded in the Chinese psyche. Every schoolchild here learns the legend of "the great Yu," whose prodigious feats of canal building and drainage ditch digging 4,000 years ago put an end to killer floods on the Yellow River.这种关一年一次的洪水的记忆已经嵌入到中国人的心灵深处。这里的每一个学龄儿童都知道大禹的传说，他的伟大功绩在于4000年前修筑了河渠和排水沟，终止了当时黄河洪水的泛滥。
Not for long, though. The Yellow River – China's second longest – has burst its banks repeatedly in the millenniums since, despite the best efforts of dynasty after imperial dynasty to control it. The two deadliest natural disasters in human history were both Yellow River floods, in 1887 and 1931, that between them are estimated to have killed as many as 6 million people.黄河虽然不长，但是中国第二长的河流，几千年来一直洪水泛滥，尽管各朝各代都在努力控制住它。人类历史上最具杀伤力的自然灾害均发生在黄河，分别在1887年和1931年，据估计在这两年之间有多达六百万人死于洪水。
Dams and other civil engineering works undertaken since the communists took power in 1949 have alleviated the situation over the past six decades, but hardly brought it under control – as this year's floods have shown. Some 12 million people have been forced from their homes this summer, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, and more than $40 billion worth of damage has been done.共产党执政后修筑的大坝和其它工程在过去六十年间减轻了这种局势，但是几乎没有控制住黄河，如今年所爆发的洪水所显示的。根据民政部的统计，今天夏天有将近一千二百万背井离乡，并且造成了超过400亿美元的损失。
China's efficient crisis management中国政府卓有成效的危机管理
The Chinese authorities have acquitted themselves well in rescue and relief efforts however, according to local experts, maintaining a reputation for efficiency earned during the Sichuan earthquake in 2008.中国政府在抢险救灾方面已经做得不错，但是，当地专家说，政府在2008年的汶川地震中获得了效率好的声誉。
"Since the SARS outbreak in 2003," when Beijing drew international condemnation for irresponsibility by trying to conceal and ignore the epidemic, "the government has learned a lot about crisis management and paid a lot of attention to it," says Peng Zongchao, a crisis response expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing."从2003年的非典疫情中，"中国政府由于隐藏和忽视疫情而受到国际谴责，"政府从中学到了很多危机管理的知识并且给予了大量关注，"彭宗超说，它是北京清华大学的危机响应专家。
"The most important element for the Chinese government," Professor Peng adds, "is its strong mobilization ability.""中国政府最厉害的，"彭教授继续说，"是其强大的动员能力。"
As a centrally controlled system enforcing strict one party discipline, and with the military under the Communist Party's command, "the government can mobilize social forces and essential resources to respond to emergencies," Peng says.作为一个一党制的国家，且控制着国家军队，"政府能够动员所有社会力量和重要资源应对突发事件，"彭说。
"This summer," he says "we have seen them responding to natural disasters like the floods very quickly.""今年夏天，"他说"我们看到政府应对自然灾害的速度向洪水一样迅速。"
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