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以色列经济学家对中国的建议
时寒冰
（照片说明 上图：与Eugen Roden先生。下图：与Ron Havilio先生。）
今年3月，一位多年前的老朋友跟我联系，说以色列的经济学家Eugen Roden（印象中是这样的拼写）很希望能够安排一次会面，在获悉我的著作《中国怎么办》的主要内容后，他很希望就金融危机问题跟我交流一下。同时，这位经济学家的朋友，多次获得大奖的国际知名导演Ron Havilio也一同参加。
他们原本计划直接到上海见我，而我3月底正好有一次到南方出差的机会，便于29日在广州停留了一个下午，大家一起聊了3个多小时。Eugen Roden与Ron Havilio都是第一次到中国，对中国非常友好，谈话中，他们对中国如何应对这场危机及与美国打交道，提了很多建议，分手的时候，他们向我祝福，同时，向中国祝福。我不知道这是不是他们礼节性的祝福语，但心中依然很感动。民族荣誉根植于我的骨髓。尽管经常提出批评意见，但都是出于爱之深切的缘故。
非常巧合的是，Eugen Roden对房地产和金融同时有研究，本身也做实业，使得我们在交流对金融危机的看法时，能够找到很多契合点。因为，如果不从房地产和金融层面同时入手，是很难真正理解次贷危机的。
Eugen Roden非常赞同我对未来全球通货膨胀的预测。
Eugen Roden认为，美国是一个躺在手术台上的病人，而中国在不停地向他输血。中国庞大的外汇储备，就是在向美国输送财富。
相关问题我们谈得比较具体。
比如，Eugen Roden认为：中国不应该购买美国的国债，而应该购买美国大公司的股票、房产，或进行策略性投资（比如，对一个公司进行控股）。
我说，中国外汇储备除去购买的美国国债、次级债，高位买的美国股票，加上满足三个月进口的必须储备，已经拿不出钱去做这些。而且，中国一旦抛售债券会引发"自宫"后果，导致财富缩水。
Eugen Roden说，中国不应该出售外汇储备形式的债券，而应该将这些债券抵押给银行从而获得贷款。
我说，这没有可行性。外汇储备少的国家或许可以这样做，但中国作为外汇储备全球第一的国家，很难这样做。中国已经作茧自缚。而且，美国的商业银行自己还需要政府出手相救，怎么可能拿出那么多资金贷给中国？
Eugen Roden说，美国的商业银行可以向美联储贷款。
我说，这种可行性比较小。即便这样做技术上能说得过去，能够拿出资金，问题是，美国会向购买美国公司和相关资产的中国开绿灯吗？要知道，他们对中国在美的收购行为一直都是非常警惕的，总是想法设置重重门槛。
Eugen Roden说，今非昔比了。美国正处于金融危机阶段，相关限制会明显放宽。Eugen Roden建议我向政府有关部门建议。
我说类似的建议，我此前也提到过，包括购买资产、资源、技术等等，但没有人搭理我。直到2008年，我提出的限制资源出口及进行资源储备的建议才受到重视。我非常希望他有机会，直接向中国政府建议，或许会收到好的效果，因为，决策者对洋人的建议更重视一些。
提到人才引进的问题，Eugen Roden说，中国应该从华尔街引进一批优秀人才。
我说，有关部门引进的更多的是饭桶或奸细，因为，只有引进笨蛋才不显得自己笨。而且，在华尔街工作的，还有很多混不下的，要找优秀人才并不容易。
Eugen Roden则建议，可以通过一些捷径来解决这一难题，他举例说，可以翻阅美国的报纸，对比一些分析师此前的文章，看哪些人的分析是有远见和有前瞻性的，这些人才就可以列入考察、吸纳范围。
翻报纸的确是有关部门工作人员的强项，问题是，那种翻阅往往是为了消遣，而要收集信息找人才，我们的公务员能腾出宝贵的闲聊时间做这个吗？而且，我在一年多前就曾推断出美国股市会从1万4千多点跌到6千多点，也从来没有人重视。
Eugen Roden的心态非常年轻，精力充沛，有比较多的积累，我问的不少刁钻问题他也都认真回答。他是一个非常认真也非常理想化的人，由于是初次到中国，对中国的了解非常有限，我不得不费时间跟他就一些问题进行解释。我中间开了句玩笑，说他对中国的了解并不比我对火星的了解多。
这是一次深入而愉快的交流。
由于谈的是金融话题，Ron Havilio说话不多，但每次发言都直击实质，他是一个很智慧的人。他纪念碑式的作品《耶路撒冷断章》，从1987年开始，一直到1996年才完成。这部长达六小时的纪录片，1997年在日本山形纪录片电影节获得大奖，1998年在柏林电影节获费比西影评人奖，在爱丁堡获最佳纪录片。随后的《宝道西之旅》则在波兰弗罗茨瓦国际电影节获公众推选大奖，在香港国际电影节获人道奖，在日本山形纪录片电影节获优秀奖。
Ron Havilio告诉我，一个人的作品不在多，在于精，而他做到了每一部作品都是经典。
Eugen Roden非常认真，那次会谈后，他认真写了"The main points of our discussion at 29.3.2009（2009年3月29日讨论要点）"发给我，表述他那天谈及的主要观点，与谈话相比，内容显得过于书面了一些，没有记录下那些鲜活的对白，也没有ugen Roden在交流时谈及的内容丰富。我将随身带的两本新版的《中国怎么办——当次贷危机改变世界》签名后，分别送给了Eugen Roden与Ron Havilio。
附一：
The main points of our discussion at 29.3.2009,
A.Major assumptions
1.Our major assumption is that due to the emergency situation, the world economic crisis has to be treated with very short term tools (expected result up to one year).
2.Every day may be THE DAY of a new collapse of a major financial institution with catastrophic consequences.
3.China is a major economic force nowadays.If it wants to defend its economic interests, China has to take global economic responsibility.
B.Analysis of the causes of the economic brake down.
1.The World's major economic problems are the consequence of USA trade deficit, whose accumulation started about 25 years ago, with an increased momentum in the last years.
2.The deficit was partly covered by China.It created about 2 trillion US$ federal reserves in China and approximately the same amount in other countries, mainly in Japan, other East Asian countries and oil exporting countries.
3.Chinese reserves are mainly in US government bonds and bonds of other major US companies, as their liabilities are partly guarantied by the US government.
4.The accumulation of US trade deficit in continuous growing grade created a world financial system, which gave loans based on mortgaged assets.As it appears the assets have been unrealistically overvalued.These loans were later "packaged" and sold worldwide, (partly back to exporting countries).
5.The credit crunch started, when the trend of real estate prices changed its direction.
6.Within a year, since the first signs the crisis appeared, the assets values were reduced world wide by tenths of percents, while the liabilities of the borrowers remained on the same level.This phenomenon caused deficiency of mortgage coverage and subsequently problems of liquidity to the system.
7.The crisis affects also China as a major creditor of the USA, and its investments are endangered.
8.With the collapse of US and world economy, China and other export oriented economies have lost markets for their merchandises.
9.China can't replace in the short term the US and European markets with domestic demand as supplement to lost markets.
10.If China uses only economic tools (such as revaluation, interest rate reduction, taxation etc.), it cannot replace even partly the loss of US and European consumption demand.
11.Economic measures alone will have no immediate impact on the economic behavior of the population (saving rates), unless it will be paralleled by social legislation.
12.Social legislation has long term influence on the society.It has to be very cautiously judged and needs long political procedures.
13.As a consequence of the economic crisis, the demand for US goods will be also reduced and the closing of its trade deficit will be a very long process.
14.Even if the USA will reduce substantially its demand for imported goods, it will not be able to balance its "trade deficit" in the short term.
15.The US policy of bailing out Banks and Financial institutions, purchasing toxic assets etc, will further increase the debts of US government.These steps will create on the long term a devaluation of the US$, and in parallel it can cause an outbreak of inflation.
16.Since the banks' main problem today is to increase their liquidity, the money that is poured into the financial institutions by the US and European governments is not transferred to the economy.
C.Solution to the problem suggested by us;
1.To help restart the world economy, China has to pour back the reserves it is holding in US$ into the USA economy.
2.Until now it has done it by purchasing bonds.The bonds are loosing value even if they are guarantied by US government.(Due to the risk of outbreak of inflation and/or devaluation of the US$.)
3.We suggest an alternative policy of investing directly into US economy and purchasing assets; for example shares of major US and European companies, real estate, as well as strategic investments (when purchasing the majority share of a company).
4.By doing so, liquidities will increase in the US and European economies.
5.Since the price of the assets was reduced substantially by the crisis and they seem to have reached the bottom, China will most probably gain substantial profits by that policy.
6.Due to its overwhelming weight in World's economy, China will become a market maker.
7.To reduce the danger of conflicting situation with US and Europe, when a strategic investment is done, China has to do it in tight coordination with the US, and respectively with European governments.
8.To implement this policy, the Central bank of China has to create several investment funds, in which it will invest large part of China's foreign currency reserves.
9.To solve the problem of the management of these funds, it has to recruit managers of investment funds and investment banks, who were recently released from their jobs in the financial institutions.Most of them are excellent professionals and if they are employed in a correct framework, they can be very useful.
10.To finance these purchases, China should avoid selling the Bonds it is holding in foreign currency reserves, because this will degrade their value.China should instead pledge the bonds to commercial banks and take loans against it.
11.As a by product of the suggested policy, banks will intensify their loaning policy and this will restart the economy.
D.The expected consequence of the suggested policy.
1.US and European economies will get back liquidities.
2.By purchasing assets in today's prices, China will profit or at least preserve the real value of its UD$ reserves.
3.The upward trend of financial markets and real estate prices will renew the activity of financial institutions.
4.An increase in the value of World wide assets will enable the banks to re-evaluate the pledged assets of its creditors and allow them to increase lending.
5.If inflationary pressures will appear in China, it will have chance to revaluate its currency, and by doing so, slowly, on the long run the unbalances of world economy will be reduced.
附二：本周五（2009年4月10日）晚上8点到10点，"中国怎么办"圈子举行第一次互动，话题是：《中国房价何处去》，以发帖提问和跟帖回答的方式进行，点击此处进入。
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