Global Greens call for all Governments to plan for a 2m sea level rise
The Global Greens,
Noting:
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (2007)
recent updates by IPCC scientists (2007- 2012) noting warming
occurring at higher end scenarios
the action of many Governments to plan for increased sea level projections
the scale and complexity of climate change mitigation and adaptation action
the severity of the risk and impact on current and future generations
Call on Governments of all nations to adopt and plan for a projected
sea level rise of at least 2 metres by 2100, to apply the
precautionary principle and to take into account the combined effects
of tides, storm surges, coastal processes and location conditions,
such as topography and geology when assessing risk and impacts
associated with climate change.
Statement in Support
Recent reviews of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report (IPCC AR4); new data and improved methodologies; new
Australian benchmarks of 1.1m by 2100 and lessons from overseas,
suggest that Governments should be planning for a much higher sea
level rise.
In late 2010, the Royal Society published a review of CC literature,
the IPCC AR4, concerns re stability of Greenland and west Antarctic
ice shelves and a range of mitigation scenarios and concluded: … a
rise of up to 2 m is not implausible but of unquantifiable probability
The Australian Government Climate Change Risks to Australia's Coast
Report found that:
Post AR4 analysis combining thermal expansion and potential rates of
ice melt show that the probabilistic distribution is skewed towards
the upper end and that using the high-end scenario to inform
decision-making is justified. Very recent research also suggests that
a 1.1m scenario by the end of the century may not reflect the upper
end of potential risk, and that risk assessments could be informed by
a higher level … assessment provides a case for early action to
reduce risk … The climate system appears to be changing faster than
earlier thought likely. … There is still considerable uncertainty
surrounding estimates of future sea‑level rise. Nearly all of these
uncertainties, however, operate in one direction, towards higher
rather than lower estimates…
In 2010, the UK Government Thames Estuary 2100 Project adopted a
projection of 2.5m by 2100, California has adopted 1.10 - 1.76m by
2100 and last month Singapore added another meter to sea level
projections.
As the Australian Government Report noted:
Areas of highest warming tend to be near the coast, especially in
areas of poor circulation … the most severe risks will be from
coincident events of several hazards. For example, sea-level rise on
top of an extreme storm tide and a severe riverine flood from the same
weather event … With a mid range sea-level rise sea-level rise of
0.5m in the 21st century, events that now happen every 10 years would
happen about every 10 days in 100. The current 1-in-100 year event
could occur several times a year …
Greens Policy
There is no specific provision dealing with sea level projections in
the AG CC Policy (2009)
http://greens.org.au/sites/greens.org.au/files/policydownloads/C1%20ClimateChange%20Nov%202009.pdf
The AGV CC Policy (2010) refers to ' Ensuring that coastal zone
planning regulations allow for expected rise in sea levels, which
could be 1.1 m by 2100' http://vic.greens.org.au/policies/climate Both
these policies are facing review this year, nevertheless, some
delegates may prefer the resolution only call for planning for 1.1m .
在 12-3-17，Kasia Hu<hometown.kasia@gmail.com> 写道：
> 在线报导 <http://www.dw.de/dw/0,,9058,00.html> /
> 科技环境<http://www.dw.de/dw/0,,1686,00.html>
> 科技环境 拿什么拯救你，沉没的城市？
>
> 中国的现代大都会上海正在"沉没"？在网络上，已经有人将上海与传说中已经沉没的文明大陆"亚特兰蒂斯"相提并论。情况有那么严重吗？上海和中国的其他50个大城市真的面临沉没的威胁吗？
>
>
> (德国之声中文网)房屋建筑上的裂缝、变形的地铁轨道、不稳定的地下土层--人口超过1600万的上海真的面临着严峻的问题。今年2月，上海陆家嘴在建的
> 当地最高楼上海中心大厦施工工地附近出现一条八米长的裂缝。根据上海市地质调查研究院的测量，整座城市正在以平均每年7毫米的速度沉降。据"财新"杂志报
> 道，从1965年至今，上海的地面已经下沉了110毫米。尽管如此，高耸入云的摩天大厦还是一幢接一幢地拔地而起。今天，上海的地平面已经比100年前降
> 低了大约三米。上海，这座"海上的城市"中的上千万居民，开始为自己的生存安全担忧。
> 拿什么拯救你，沉没的城市？（音频）
>
> *中国有50座城市在下沉*
>
> 出现这一现象的不仅仅是上海一座城市，据中国国土资源部不久前通报，超过50座城市面临地面沉降的威胁。情况尤其严重的是用水量大的人口密集城市，比如北
> 京、天津、杭州和西安等。其中长江三角洲、汾渭盆地和华北平原等地区形势比较严峻。到2015年之前，中国政府计划通过大力采取对应措施来防止这些城市进
> 一步沉降。
>
> 根据不久前中国政府委托进行的一项研究报告，大城市地面下沉的主要原因包括：不计其数的摩天大厦过度的重压，以及无节制的抽取地下水。早在2003年，上
> 海市地质调查研究院的研究就曾指出，该城市相对较软的居住区地面无法承受总共3000多座高度超过18层的建筑重力。尤其在高楼林立的金融区浦东，地面的
> 沉降速度甚至比老城中心地带高出3到6倍。当时，上海市规划部门就开始限制更多的摩天大厦的建设计划，不顾房地产开发商的强烈反对。
>
> 林立的高楼，地面无法承受之重
>
> *用水来"填地"？*
>
> 中国的首都北京目前不惜花费重金，来应对地面的沉降问题。除了严格限制地下水的抽取之外，北京市每天都在往地下土层回灌数千升的水，以减轻空洞的地下土层
> 所承受的压力。天津则从上世纪80年代起就意识到了这个问题。通过减少地下水的使用，天津地面每年的沉降程度已经从原先的80毫米降低到了20毫米。
>
> 不过，德国联邦地质学和原材料研究所（BGR）的屈恩（Friedrich
> Kühn）认为，这种用水"填地"的方法效率不是很高："假如一座城市的某些地方已经沉降了2到3米的话，那么仅仅通过回灌地下水的方式已经无法逆转
> 了。"城市地面沉降所带来的经济损失一般都在较长时间之后才显现出来，但其后果是严重的。屈恩说："一些街道和交通基础设施可能会沉没，居住区被毁。在个
> 别情况下，可能还会发生房屋倒塌的情况。如果建筑已经因为地面沉降而出现损毁，那么一旦发生地震，后果则不堪设想。"他认为，要想解决这个问题，只有改变
> 地下水的利用方式，也就是按照自然补给的量来取用地下水。德国所有的城市都必须遵守这一规则，也就是说，取用的地下水必须能够通过自然的水循环得到等量的 补给。
>
> 据中央电视台报道，每年上海市政府都出资数千万，以向地下土层灌水。不过，摩天大楼的建筑热潮仍然没有冷却。
>
> 作者：Phyllis Kuhn 编译：雨涵
>
> 责编：文木
>
> - *日期* 17.03.2012
>
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