搜索的未来
自 谷歌创立后的十年间，互联网对人们的生活已经有了翻天覆地的影响。政治、娱乐、文化、商业、健康、环境以及所有其他你能想到的领域，无不因为网络而改变。 对于下一个互联网十年，还会发生些什么？我们应有何想法？非凡的网络技术将如何演变,而我们又该如何应对？更重要的是，这将给我们带来什么变化？就此话题 我们向谷歌十位首席专家分别提问，在九月份（谷歌十周年）我们将陆续为大家呈现出他们各自的答案。正如计算机科学家 Alan Kay 的著名格言，预言未来的最佳方式就是创造它，我们会尽我们所能每天呈现最好的文字----Karen Wickre 和 Alan Eagle,本系列的编辑。
发表者：谷歌(Google)搜索产品和用户体验副总裁 玛丽莎梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer)
我 是一名"搜索狂"。我天生就对很多事物非常好奇----并希望能够找到答案。而且，我已经在谷歌工作了 9 年零 3 个月。毫无疑问，我平常会进行大量搜索活动。尽管我有大量疑问希望通过搜索引擎得到答案，但大致估算起来，我每天只能搜索其中 20% 的问题。上个周六，我曾谈起一些问题，我想当时搜索到正确答案但没有做到。
我经常想，"fab"、"goy"、"eely"这些字母组合 究竟是不是英文单词？我住处附近的 J.C. Penney 百货公司周六究竟几点开门营业？我所居住城市附近的水电站每年能发多少度电？你怎样为一群火鸡命名？那个伟大的以色列长笛手叫什么名字？在莫斯科和圣彼得 堡之外，俄罗斯最大的城市是什么？红杉和柏树，谁更古老？最老的生物是谁，有多老？是谁唱的"Queen of Hearts"？"LF"是在旧金山联合广场还是在联合大街？什么是查尔斯顿舞步？ The Lawrence Welk Show 会在几星期后开始？抒情诗"In the Mood"是什么内容？香豆定和阿司匹林在血液稀释方面有什么不同？在"googol"背后是一个什么样的故事？
这些只是我能够记起来的 部分。看看这个名单，我想表达两点意思：1)我可以做更多的搜索；2)搜索产业仍有很多创新、变化和进步的机会。搜索技术本身还有很多途径可以向前发展， 这样才能轻松满足用户搜索查询的需求。让我们看看我在周六尚未解答的问题，思考一下今后 10 年内全球搜索产业可能发生的主要变革：
模式
我 的第一个疑问是，为何我想进行搜索的时候，却无法使用搜索引擎？原因就是目前搜索服务的易用性有待提高。搜索服务需要具备足够的移动性能----用户应该可在 手机、汽车及手持设备和我们目前还不具备的可穿戴设备中使用搜索引擎。比如，在坐船航行过程中，大家都在谈论一个关于最老的生物的话题，没有人会中断谈话 去用一个笨拙缓慢的机器来进行搜索。如果这时有一个不需中断谈话而且能够提供良好搜索服务的设备，那将是美妙的事情。更极端的想法是，能不能有一种可穿戴 设备，它会根据人们的谈话内容抽取关键词来查询，然后显示相关的搜索结果？
这个念头引出改变搜索模式的另一种思路----语音搜索和语义搜索。你应该可以对搜索引擎谈话，也许你只要通过声音就能进行搜索，或者你只要通过输入一些自然语言便能查询，而不必像现在这样停下手头的事情来输入关键字进行搜索。
再 进一步，为什么搜索必须基于文字？为什么我不能直接输入一张鸟类的图片，让搜索引擎 来分辨它是哪一种鸟？为什么我们不能截取一小段声音（一段音乐或者一段谈话），让搜索引擎分辨和分析，然后告诉我们其他的相关信息？虽然目前有的搜索引擎 已推出部分类似的服务，但不易用，也不完整。
今后 10 年内，我们将看到搜索模式出现重大变革：手持设备可提供更方便的搜索服务，更多的移动设备具备互联网功能，人们在进行搜索活动时，既可键入关键词，也可使 用语音、手势、图片甚至歌曲来提交搜索问题。很明显，虽然基于文字的搜索查询人仍占据主要位置，但它也有很多局限性。新的模式将是引发搜索服务的变化的最 大的力量。
媒介
现在从媒介方面谈谈搜索。在搜索结果中提供的 10 个链接看起来不错，但是如果你正在努力回想查尔斯顿舞步，一个文字性的网页远不如一个视频更有帮助。传输搜索结果的媒介很重要。
今 年 5 月，谷歌推出了整合搜索服务，这是在搜索结果返回页面中包括图片、视频、新闻、书籍、地图、位置等信息的重要的第一步。该功能仍是线性的而且平淡无奇（搜 索结果还是一个列表，任何一个都不比另一个更重要或者占据页面更大）。假如搜索结果页面从根本上改变，涵盖了丰富的内容，看起来更像是一个完成答案而不是 10 个互不相关的结果罗列；假如搜索结果页面用丰富的媒介形式而不是仅仅将最有用的内容列在第一个；假如我们分栏列出了搜索结果以便充分使用更新、更大的屏幕 空间，那么搜索服务又会怎么样？
我们已经大胆地设计了整合搜索的轮廓，但这是重要的第一步，我们正在探索，搜索结果如何涵盖更丰富的媒介 形式。过去一年中，谷歌一直致力于充分利用这些新型搜索结果，并逐步改变用户界面的设计，提高用户的搜索体验。今后数月中，你将看到我们的实验结果，但这 种改变仅仅是个开始。今后 10 年内，搜索产业的现有格局将发生革命性变化。或许今后搜索结果页面中将包含更多视频和图片，或许搜索答案的准确性和相关性将大幅提高，或许搜索更加互动。 虽然我们还无法预知，但我们知道一件事，无论怎样，当前的搜索引擎不会停滞不前----尤其是当在线媒体内容大量爆发的时候。
个性化
10 年以后的搜索引擎将远远好于我们今天使用的搜索。我们知道，因为谷歌搜索每天都在进步，我们每天都在坚持不懈地提高搜索结果的准确性和相关性，并且每天都 有进步。这种改进不但有利于提高谷歌自身实力，其他搜索引擎也可从中借鉴有益经验。由此看来，搜索引擎性能在10内将有显著改善，但问题是它们究竟会好到 什么程度？
这个问题的答案是：未来的搜索引擎将变得更好，部分是由于搜索引擎将越来越懂得特定用户的查询需求。当然，你肯定能够控制个人 信息，搜索引擎在收集你的上网习惯等信息时，事先会征得你的同意。但即使只有最基本的个人信息，今后搜索引擎仍将能提供更符合个人需求的搜索答案。或许未 来的搜索引擎会了解你所在位置，或许了解你此前已进行了哪些搜索活动，或许搜索引擎将完全理解你的搜索意图，原因是你已经选择与谷歌共享你的上网习惯等信 息。我们不确定哪些个人信息是最有价值的，但是我们正致力于研究和实验个性化搜索服务，因为我们认为，这将是非常重要的。
位置
你 所处的位置是搜索引擎向用户提供个性化服务的重要基础之一。看看我之前的问题，回答这些问题（J.C. Penney 百货公司周六究竟几点开门营业？我所居住城市附近的水电站每年能发多少度电？戏剧 Tropic Thunder 什么时候登台？），这都要求搜索引擎知道我是在南达科塔、克罗夫特还是内布拉斯加问这个问题。因为所处位置与许多搜索结果相关，了解到你所处位置和环境 后，搜索引擎就能够向你提供更为准确的搜索结果。
社交
在 个性化搜索服务中，另一个重要因素就是查找社会关系。谁是我的朋友，我怎么跟他们联系？我怎样更迅速地得知他们的消息？例如，我有一个朋友在洛杉矶的LF 商店工作（这是那个关于 LF 的问题的由来）。"LF"本身只是一个模糊的字母缩写，它可以是我的朋友的时髦商店，但它也可以是 Leapfrog Enterprises 公司，可以指低频，作家 Lebhar-Friedman，Li & Fung 投资集团，LF Driscoll Construction Management，或者是 Lexus 的未来概念车型。现在，输入"LF"的人必须弄明白，哪个结果是他想要的，必须消除歧义----但这是搜索引擎应该做的。也许我们应该理解"LF 在旧金山什么位置"这个问题的语义，推断 LF 是个商店。又或许，搜索引擎可以分析我的社会关系，发现我的一个朋友在 LF 工作。我这个星期要去看望的朋友，因此我输入的"LF"是指他被雇佣工作的地方。今后搜索引擎将使用分析用户社会关系的算法，这样就能找到更为准确的搜索 答案。
另外，有些搜索是在寻求朋友的帮助。我曾苦苦寻找关于香豆定和阿司匹林在血液稀释方面有什么不同的答案，因为我把它拼写为 "cumitin"，谷歌并没有纠正这个错误。我给一个医生朋友发邮件，马上得到了答复----我的朋友还给了我正确的拼写以及关于其不同药性的解释，因此我 可以搜索和研究关于这两种药物如何稀释血液的更多知识。在用户的社会关系网中有许多专家和业内人士，所以使用工具来获得"朋友圈子"的信息，可以使搜索更 有效和更相关。
语种
以上的例子显示了我们前 面谈到的搜索模式、媒体及各类个性化信息是如何大幅改进搜索服务的。但我们还得注意一点，这就是不同语种的搜索。在很多情况下，我们都知道互联网存在着我 们需求的答案，只是这种答案以另外一种语言写成。这就是谷歌推出了机器翻译服务的原因。我们的目的让所有语种的网民都能找到自己想要的答案。最基本的概念 是----如果用户查询某个问题的答案以其他语种形式发布在互联网上，谷歌将找到它，把该答案翻译成该用户能看懂的本地语言。这是一个难以置信的好主意，它将 真正改变用户的互联网体验，尤其是当用户自身的语言环境中没有足够的答案时更为有用。你可以访问跨语言信息检索工具看看我们早期的工作。
结论
我 们都知道工作效率中的"80-20 法则"，即最后 20% 的解决方案将占据 80% 的工作量。就搜索产业而言，则应该变为"90-10 法则"。今天，我们有一个 90% 解决方案：我可以回答我在上个周六未获回答的所有问题，不够理想也不容易，但我可以用现在的搜索引擎解决问题。然而，余下 10% 的解决方案却要占据 90% 的工作量（实际上比 90% 更高）。提出合理、恰当、相关的搜索服务解决方案，符合可移动、多种模式、多种媒介、个性化、获知所处位置、社交关系、语言等诸多要求，这要耗费几十年的 时间。搜索是一门可以发展几个世纪的科学，如同 16 世纪和 17 世纪的生物学一样：当时生物学还只是一门新科学，人类在这一领域实现了诸多技术突破。但是，在一百多年甚至更长的一段时间之后，我们才拥有了显微镜，并了 解到分子和原子的存在。就如同数百年前的生物学一样，互联网最伟大的进步还没有到来，这也正是互联网搜索的魅力所在。
那么理想境界的搜索 引擎应该是个什么样子？简而言之，完美状态的搜索引擎应该是你最好的朋友，它可以立刻为你找到这个世界的所有信息，它储存了你所看过和知道的所有知识。搜 索引擎应充分懂得你的查询需求、你的既有学识和最需要的信息，然后为你量身定制最为准确的答案。它可以为你呈现丰富的媒介形式和不同模式的搜索结果。理想 的搜索引擎可以激励我去寻找那些问题的答案。谷歌在它的第一个 10 年中，用快速和轻松的信息检索技术改变了人们对信息的期望，我对此引以自豪。但我更看重谷歌搜索在未来的发展。
下面，列举几个针对上周六提到的问题的一些搜索结果。
fab, goy, eely 是单词吗?答案：是！通过 Merriam-Webster 可查：
搜索: [fab site:m-w.com ]
结果:http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/fab
搜索: [goy site:m-w.com]
结果: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/goy
搜索:[eely site:m-w.com ]
结果: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/eely
J.C. Penney 周六几点开始营业？上午 10 点
搜索: [jc penney yankton ]
显示结果: http://www.google.com/search?q=jcpenney+yankton
哪所学校有一个名为"Banana Slugs"的队? 加利福尼亚大学
搜索: [banana slugs]
结果: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Santa_Cruz
圣何塞州队的吉祥物是什么? 圣何塞斯巴达人
搜索: [san jose state mascot]
结果: http://www.google.com/search?q=san+jose+state+mascot
发表者：谷歌(Google)搜索产品和用户体验副总裁 玛丽莎梅耶尔(Marissa Mayer)
我 是一名"搜索狂"。我天生就对很多事物非常好奇----并希望能够找到答案。而且，我已经在谷歌工作了 9 年零 3 个月。毫无疑问，我平常会进行大量搜索活动。尽管我有大量疑问希望通过搜索引擎得到答案，但大致估算起来，我每天只能搜索其中 20% 的问题。上个周六，我曾谈起一些问题，我想当时搜索到正确答案但没有做到。
我经常想，"fab"、"goy"、"eely"这些字母组合 究竟是不是英文单词？我住处附近的 J.C. Penney 百货公司周六究竟几点开门营业？我所居住城市附近的水电站每年能发多少度电？你怎样为一群火鸡命名？那个伟大的以色列长笛手叫什么名字？在莫斯科和圣彼得 堡之外，俄罗斯最大的城市是什么？红杉和柏树，谁更古老？最老的生物是谁，有多老？是谁唱的"Queen of Hearts"？"LF"是在旧金山联合广场还是在联合大街？什么是查尔斯顿舞步？ The Lawrence Welk Show 会在几星期后开始？抒情诗"In the Mood"是什么内容？香豆定和阿司匹林在血液稀释方面有什么不同？在"googol"背后是一个什么样的故事？
这些只是我能够记起来的 部分。看看这个名单，我想表达两点意思：1)我可以做更多的搜索；2)搜索产业仍有很多创新、变化和进步的机会。搜索技术本身还有很多途径可以向前发展， 这样才能轻松满足用户搜索查询的需求。让我们看看我在周六尚未解答的问题，思考一下今后 10 年内全球搜索产业可能发生的主要变革：
模式
我 的第一个疑问是，为何我想进行搜索的时候，却无法使用搜索引擎？原因就是目前搜索服务的易用性有待提高。搜索服务需要具备足够的移动性能----用户应该可在 手机、汽车及手持设备和我们目前还不具备的可穿戴设备中使用搜索引擎。比如，在坐船航行过程中，大家都在谈论一个关于最老的生物的话题，没有人会中断谈话 去用一个笨拙缓慢的机器来进行搜索。如果这时有一个不需中断谈话而且能够提供良好搜索服务的设备，那将是美妙的事情。更极端的想法是，能不能有一种可穿戴 设备，它会根据人们的谈话内容抽取关键词来查询，然后显示相关的搜索结果？
这个念头引出改变搜索模式的另一种思路----语音搜索和语义搜索。你应该可以对搜索引擎谈话，也许你只要通过声音就能进行搜索，或者你只要通过输入一些自然语言便能查询，而不必像现在这样停下手头的事情来输入关键字进行搜索。
再 进一步，为什么搜索必须基于文字？为什么我不能直接输入一张鸟类的图片，让搜索引擎 来分辨它是哪一种鸟？为什么我们不能截取一小段声音（一段音乐或者一段谈话），让搜索引擎分辨和分析，然后告诉我们其他的相关信息？虽然目前有的搜索引擎 已推出部分类似的服务，但不易用，也不完整。
今后 10 年内，我们将看到搜索模式出现重大变革：手持设备可提供更方便的搜索服务，更多的移动设备具备互联网功能，人们在进行搜索活动时，既可键入关键词，也可使 用语音、手势、图片甚至歌曲来提交搜索问题。很明显，虽然基于文字的搜索查询人仍占据主要位置，但它也有很多局限性。新的模式将是引发搜索服务的变化的最 大的力量。
媒介
现在从媒介方面谈谈搜索。在搜索结果中提供的 10 个链接看起来不错，但是如果你正在努力回想查尔斯顿舞步，一个文字性的网页远不如一个视频更有帮助。传输搜索结果的媒介很重要。
今 年 5 月，谷歌推出了整合搜索服务，这是在搜索结果返回页面中包括图片、视频、新闻、书籍、地图、位置等信息的重要的第一步。该功能仍是线性的而且平淡无奇（搜 索结果还是一个列表，任何一个都不比另一个更重要或者占据页面更大）。假如搜索结果页面从根本上改变，涵盖了丰富的内容，看起来更像是一个完成答案而不是 10 个互不相关的结果罗列；假如搜索结果页面用丰富的媒介形式而不是仅仅将最有用的内容列在第一个；假如我们分栏列出了搜索结果以便充分使用更新、更大的屏幕 空间，那么搜索服务又会怎么样？
我们已经大胆地设计了整合搜索的轮廓，但这是重要的第一步，我们正在探索，搜索结果如何涵盖更丰富的媒介 形式。过去一年中，谷歌一直致力于充分利用这些新型搜索结果，并逐步改变用户界面的设计，提高用户的搜索体验。今后数月中，你将看到我们的实验结果，但这 种改变仅仅是个开始。今后 10 年内，搜索产业的现有格局将发生革命性变化。或许今后搜索结果页面中将包含更多视频和图片，或许搜索答案的准确性和相关性将大幅提高，或许搜索更加互动。 虽然我们还无法预知，但我们知道一件事，无论怎样，当前的搜索引擎不会停滞不前----尤其是当在线媒体内容大量爆发的时候。
个性化
10 年以后的搜索引擎将远远好于我们今天使用的搜索。我们知道，因为谷歌搜索每天都在进步，我们每天都在坚持不懈地提高搜索结果的准确性和相关性，并且每天都 有进步。这种改进不但有利于提高谷歌自身实力，其他搜索引擎也可从中借鉴有益经验。由此看来，搜索引擎性能在10内将有显著改善，但问题是它们究竟会好到 什么程度？
这个问题的答案是：未来的搜索引擎将变得更好，部分是由于搜索引擎将越来越懂得特定用户的查询需求。当然，你肯定能够控制个人 信息，搜索引擎在收集你的上网习惯等信息时，事先会征得你的同意。但即使只有最基本的个人信息，今后搜索引擎仍将能提供更符合个人需求的搜索答案。或许未 来的搜索引擎会了解你所在位置，或许了解你此前已进行了哪些搜索活动，或许搜索引擎将完全理解你的搜索意图，原因是你已经选择与谷歌共享你的上网习惯等信 息。我们不确定哪些个人信息是最有价值的，但是我们正致力于研究和实验个性化搜索服务，因为我们认为，这将是非常重要的。
位置
你 所处的位置是搜索引擎向用户提供个性化服务的重要基础之一。看看我之前的问题，回答这些问题（J.C. Penney 百货公司周六究竟几点开门营业？我所居住城市附近的水电站每年能发多少度电？戏剧 Tropic Thunder 什么时候登台？），这都要求搜索引擎知道我是在南达科塔、克罗夫特还是内布拉斯加问这个问题。因为所处位置与许多搜索结果相关，了解到你所处位置和环境 后，搜索引擎就能够向你提供更为准确的搜索结果。
社交
在 个性化搜索服务中，另一个重要因素就是查找社会关系。谁是我的朋友，我怎么跟他们联系？我怎样更迅速地得知他们的消息？例如，我有一个朋友在洛杉矶的LF 商店工作（这是那个关于 LF 的问题的由来）。"LF"本身只是一个模糊的字母缩写，它可以是我的朋友的时髦商店，但它也可以是 Leapfrog Enterprises 公司，可以指低频，作家 Lebhar-Friedman，Li & Fung 投资集团，LF Driscoll Construction Management，或者是 Lexus 的未来概念车型。现在，输入"LF"的人必须弄明白，哪个结果是他想要的，必须消除歧义----但这是搜索引擎应该做的。也许我们应该理解"LF 在旧金山什么位置"这个问题的语义，推断 LF 是个商店。又或许，搜索引擎可以分析我的社会关系，发现我的一个朋友在 LF 工作。我这个星期要去看望的朋友，因此我输入的"LF"是指他被雇佣工作的地方。今后搜索引擎将使用分析用户社会关系的算法，这样就能找到更为准确的搜索 答案。
另外，有些搜索是在寻求朋友的帮助。我曾苦苦寻找关于香豆定和阿司匹林在血液稀释方面有什么不同的答案，因为我把它拼写为 "cumitin"，谷歌并没有纠正这个错误。我给一个医生朋友发邮件，马上得到了答复----我的朋友还给了我正确的拼写以及关于其不同药性的解释，因此我 可以搜索和研究关于这两种药物如何稀释血液的更多知识。在用户的社会关系网中有许多专家和业内人士，所以使用工具来获得"朋友圈子"的信息，可以使搜索更 有效和更相关。
语种
以上的例子显示了我们前 面谈到的搜索模式、媒体及各类个性化信息是如何大幅改进搜索服务的。但我们还得注意一点，这就是不同语种的搜索。在很多情况下，我们都知道互联网存在着我 们需求的答案，只是这种答案以另外一种语言写成。这就是谷歌推出了机器翻译服务的原因。我们的目的让所有语种的网民都能找到自己想要的答案。最基本的概念 是----如果用户查询某个问题的答案以其他语种形式发布在互联网上，谷歌将找到它，把该答案翻译成该用户能看懂的本地语言。这是一个难以置信的好主意，它将 真正改变用户的互联网体验，尤其是当用户自身的语言环境中没有足够的答案时更为有用。你可以访问跨语言信息检索工具看看我们早期的工作。
结论
我 们都知道工作效率中的"80-20 法则"，即最后 20% 的解决方案将占据 80% 的工作量。就搜索产业而言，则应该变为"90-10 法则"。今天，我们有一个 90% 解决方案：我可以回答我在上个周六未获回答的所有问题，不够理想也不容易，但我可以用现在的搜索引擎解决问题。然而，余下 10% 的解决方案却要占据 90% 的工作量（实际上比 90% 更高）。提出合理、恰当、相关的搜索服务解决方案，符合可移动、多种模式、多种媒介、个性化、获知所处位置、社交关系、语言等诸多要求，这要耗费几十年的 时间。搜索是一门可以发展几个世纪的科学，如同 16 世纪和 17 世纪的生物学一样：当时生物学还只是一门新科学，人类在这一领域实现了诸多技术突破。但是，在一百多年甚至更长的一段时间之后，我们才拥有了显微镜，并了 解到分子和原子的存在。就如同数百年前的生物学一样，互联网最伟大的进步还没有到来，这也正是互联网搜索的魅力所在。
那么理想境界的搜索 引擎应该是个什么样子？简而言之，完美状态的搜索引擎应该是你最好的朋友，它可以立刻为你找到这个世界的所有信息，它储存了你所看过和知道的所有知识。搜 索引擎应充分懂得你的查询需求、你的既有学识和最需要的信息，然后为你量身定制最为准确的答案。它可以为你呈现丰富的媒介形式和不同模式的搜索结果。理想 的搜索引擎可以激励我去寻找那些问题的答案。谷歌在它的第一个 10 年中，用快速和轻松的信息检索技术改变了人们对信息的期望，我对此引以自豪。但我更看重谷歌搜索在未来的发展。
下面，列举几个针对上周六提到的问题的一些搜索结果。
fab, goy, eely 是单词吗?答案：是！通过 Merriam-Webster 可查：
搜索: [fab site:m-w.com ]
结果:http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/fab
搜索: [goy site:m-w.com]
结果: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/goy
搜索:[eely site:m-w.com ]
结果: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/eely
J.C. Penney 周六几点开始营业？上午 10 点
搜索: [jc penney yankton ]
显示结果: http://www.google.com/search?q=jcpenney+yankton
哪所学校有一个名为"Banana Slugs"的队? 加利福尼亚大学
搜索: [banana slugs]
结果: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Santa_Cruz
圣何塞州队的吉祥物是什么? 圣何塞斯巴达人
搜索: [san jose state mascot]
结果: http://www.google.com/search?q=san+jose+state+mascot
On Fri, Sep 12, 2008 at 10:58 AM, 参考消息 <go2group@gmail.com> wrote:
Posted by Marissa Mayer, VP, Search Products & User Experience
Sent to you by 参考消息 via Google Reader:
via The Official Google Blog by Karen on 9/11/08
The Internet has had an enormous impact on people's lives around the world in the 10 years since Google's founding. It has changed politics, entertainment, culture, business, health care, the environment and just about every other topic you can think of. Which got us to thinking, what's going to happen in the next 10 years? How will this phenomenal technology evolve, how will we adapt, and (more importantly) how will it adapt to us? We asked 10 of our top experts this very question, and over the next three weeks we will present their responses. As computer scientist Alan Kay has famously observed, the best way to predict the future is to invent it, so we will be doing our best to make good on our experts' words every day. - Karen Wickre and Alan Eagle, series editors.I am a search addict. I'm naturally inquisitive - I've always liked finding things out. Plus, I've worked at Google on search for the past 9 years and 3 months. Of course I search - a lot. Yet I would guess that on any given day, I only do about 20% of the searches that I could. This past Saturday, I kept track of the things that came up in conversation that I wanted to search for right then but couldn't:
Are "fab," "goy" and "eely" words? (There was a Scrabble game going on.) What time does J.C. Penney open on Saturday? Which school has a team called the Banana Slugs? What is the team mascot for San Jose State? How much power does that hydroelectric dam generate? What do you call a group of turkeys? What time does Tropic Thunder show? What's the name of that great Irish flute player, first name James? What's the name of the largest city in Russia after Moscow and St. Petersburg? Which is older, a redwood or a cypress? What's the oldest living thing and how old is it? Who sings "Queen of Hearts"? What kind of bird is that flying over there? Is the "LF" in San Francisco on Union Square or Union Street? What are the dance steps to the Charleston? What day of the week was The Lawrence Welk Show on? What are the lyrics to "In the Mood"? How does Coumadin differ from aspirin in its blood thinning effects? What was the story behind the naming of the number "googol"?
And those are just the ones that I remember. Looking at this list, two things are very clear: (1) I could do a lot more searches and (2) search still has a lot of opportunity for innovation, change, and progress. There are lots of ways that search will need to evolve in order to easily meet user needs. Let's look at some of my unanswered questions from Saturday and consider how search might change over the next 10 years.
Modes
First, why couldn't I do these searches right then, when I needed to? Because search still isn't accessible enough or easy enough. Search needs to be more mobile - it should be available and easy to use in cell phones and in cars and on handheld, wearable devices that we don't even have yet. For example, when the topic of the oldest living thing came up during a boat ride, everyone in the conversation was curious about it, but no one wanted to break out an awkward, slow device to do a search. It would be much nicer if we had a device with great connectivity that could do searches without interruption. One far-fetched idea: how about a wearable device that does searches in the background based on the words it picks up from conversations, and then flashes relevant facts?
This notion brings up yet another way that "modes" of search will change - voice and natural language search. You should be able to talk to a search engine in your voice. You should also be able to ask questions verbally or by typing them in as natural language expressions. You shouldn't have to break everything down into keywords.
Further, why should a search be words at all? Why can't I enter my query as a picture of the birds overhead and have the search engine identify what kind of bird it is? Why can't I capture a snippet of audio and have the search engine identify and analyze it (a song or a stream of conversation) and tell me any relevant information about it? Services that do parts of that are available today, but not in an easy-to-use, integrated way.
In the next 10 years, we will see radical advances in modes of search: mobile devices offering us easier search, Internet capabilities deployed in more devices, and different ways of entering and expressing your queries by voice, natural language, picture, or song, just to name a few. It's clear that while keyword-based searching is incredibly powerful, it's also incredibly limiting. These new modes will be one of the most sweeping changes in search.
Media
Then there's the media aspect. The 10 blue links offered as results for Internet search can be amazing and even life-changing, but when you are trying to remember the steps to the Charleston, a textual web page isn't going to be nearly as helpful as a video. The media of the results matters.
Universal search, which we released last May, was an important first step that included images, videos, news, books, and maps/local information in our main Google search results. Yet our presentation is still very linear (the results are just a list) and even (no one result is more important or larger than the next). What if the results page began to transform radically to really harness these different types of results into something that felt much more like an answer rather than just 10 independent guesses? What if results pages pulled the best media together and laid it out such that the most useful content was not only first but largest? What if we laid out content in columns to use more of the width available on newer, wider screens?
We've barely scratched the surface with universal search, but it's an important first step to exploring the full range of what we can do with rich media. For the past year, our goal has been to take advantage of these new types of results and evolve the interface design and user experience in response. You'll see the fruits of this experimentation in the coming months, but even these changes are just the beginning. The face of search will change dramatically over the next 10 years. Maybe it should contain even more videos and images, maybe it should sharply differentiate the relative weight and accuracy of the results more, maybe it should be more interactive in terms of refinements? We're not sure yet, but we do know that the one thing that the search experience can't be - especially in the face of the online media explosion we're currently experiencing - is stagnant.
Personalization
Search engines 10 years from now will be a lot better than the ones we have now. We know this because Google itself gets a little better each day. We're constantly writing and revising new notions of search relevance, and we release improvements almost daily. Those improvements add up for us and for other search engines, so it follows that search engines 10 years from now will be markedly better. Therefore, the real question is not will search be better, but rather how will it be better?
One answer is clear: search engines of the future will be better in part because they will understand more about you, the individual user. Of course, you will be in control of your personal information, and whatever personal information the search engine uses will be with your permission and will be transparent to you. But even with the most rudimentary user information, search engines can and will provide drastically better search results. Maybe the search engines of the future will know where you are located, maybe they will know what you know already or what you learned earlier today, or maybe they will fully understand your preferences because you have chosen to share that information with us. We aren't sure which personal signals will be most valuable, but we're investing in research and experimentation on personalized search now because we think this will be very important later.
Location
Your location is one potentially useful facet of personalized information. Looking at my questions, the answers to a number of them (What time does J.C. Penney open? How much power does that hydroelectric dam generate? What time does Tropic Thunder play?) require the search engine to know that I was in Yankton, South Dakota and Crofton, Nebraska when I asked. Since location is relevant to a lot of searches, incorporating user location and context will be pivotal in increasing the relevance and ease of search in the future.
Social
Another element of personalization is social context. Who am I friends with, and how do I relate to them? How can I harness their knowledge more efficiently? For example, I have a friend who works at a store called LF in Los Angeles (hence, the question about LF in San Francisco). By itself, "LF" is a very ambiguous acronym. According to the first page of search results on Google, it could refer to my friend's trendy fashion store, but it could also refer to Leapfrog Enterprises, low frequency, Lebhar-Friedman, Li & Fung Investment Group, LF Driscoll Construction Management, large format, or a future concept car design from Lexus. Today, the person typing "LF" has to figure out which is the right result - to "disambiguate" the ambiguous term - but this is something that the search engine needs to get better at. Perhaps we'll understand the semantics of the question about where LF in San Francisco is, and infer that LF is a store. Or maybe, search could analyze my social graph and realize that one of my friends works at LF, that I saw that friend this weekend, and that in that context "LF" refers to her place of employment. Algorithmic analysis of the user's social graph to further refine a query or disambiguate it could prove very useful in the future.
In addition, there are searches where actually asking a friend helps. I was having a hard time finding out the answer to the question about aspirin versus Coumadin because I was spelling it 'cumitin' and Google wasn't correcting me. A quick email to a doctor friend, and I was back on the right track - equipped with the right spelling and his explanation of the difference, so I could search and learn even more about how these two drugs are used to thin blood. There's a lot of expertise, knowledge, and context in users' social graphs, so putting tools in place to make "friend-augmented" search easy could make search more efficient and more relevant.
Language
The above examples show how modes, media, and various forms of personalization have the potential to vastly improve search - but what about language? We know there are cases where an answer exists on the web, but not in a language you read. This is why Google is investing in machine translation. We want to be able to unlock the power of web search for anyone speaking any language. The basic concept is - if the answer exists online anywhere in any language, we'll go get it for you, translate it and bring it back in your native tongue. This is an incredibly empowering idea that could really change the way that users experience the web and communicate with each other, particularly in languages where not a lot of native content is available. You can see our early explorations in this space here, by visiting our cross-language information retrieval tool.
Conclusion
We're all familiar with 80-20 problems, where the last 20% of the solution is 80% of the work. Search is a 90-10 problem. Today, we have a 90% solution: I could answer all of my unanswered Saturday questions, not ideally or easily, but I could get it done with today's search tool. (If you're curious, the answers are below.) However, that remaining 10% of the problem really represents 90% (in fact, more than 90%) of the work. Coming up with elegant, fitting and relevant solutions to meet the challenges of mobility, modes, media, personalization, location, socialization, and language will take decades. Search is a science that will develop and advance over hundreds of years. Think of it like biology and physics in the 1500s or 1600s: it's a new science where we make big and exciting breakthroughs all the time. However, it could be a hundred years or more before we have microscopes and an understanding of the proverbial molecules and atoms of search. Just like biology and physics several hundred years ago, the biggest advances are yet to come. That's what makes the field of Internet search so exciting.
So what's our straightforward definition of the ideal search engine? Your best friend with instant access to all the world's facts and a photographic memory of everything you've seen and know. That search engine could tailor answers to you based on your preferences, your existing knowledge and the best available information; it could ask for clarification and present the answers in whatever setting or media worked best. That ideal search engine could have easily and elegantly quenched my withdrawal and fueled my addiction on Saturday. I'm very proud that Google in its first 10 years has changed expectations around information and how quickly and easily it should be able to be retrieved. But I'm even more excited about what Google search can achieve in the future.
And here, in order, are the answers to my Saturday questions.
Are fab, goy, and eely words? Yes, yes, and yes, according to Merriam-Webster:
Search: [fab site:m-w.com ]
Result: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/fab
Search: [goy site:m-w.com]
Result: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/goy
Search:[eely site:m-w.com ]
Result: http://dev.m-w.com/dictionary/eely
What time does J.C. Penney open on Saturday? 10 a.m.
Search: [jc penney yankton ]
Hours on results page: http://www.google.com/search?q=jcpenney+yankton
Which school has a team called the Banana Slugs? University of California, Santa Cruz
Search: [banana slugs]
Result: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California,_Santa_Cruz
What is the team mascot for San Jose State? The San Jose State Spartans
Search: [san jose state mascot]
On results page: http://www.google.com/search?q=san+jose+state+mascot
How much power does that hydroelectric dam generate? $35M of electricity annually
Search: [hydroelectric dam crofton yankton]
Search: [gavins point dam]
Result: https://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/Lake_Proj/gavinspoint/welcome.html
What do you call a group of turkeys? A rafter of turkeys
Search: [group of turkeys]
On results page: http://www.google.com/search?q=group+of+turkeys
What time does Tropic Thunder show? 7 p.m.
Search: [movies yankton mall]
Result: http://www.moviefone.com/theater/carmike-cinemas-yankton-mall-5/9346/showtimes
What's the name of that great Irish flute player, first name James? James Galway
Search: [irish flute player james]
On results page: http://www.google.com/search?q=irish+flute+player+james
What's the name of the largest city in Russia after Moscow and St. Petersburg? Novosibirsk
Search: [largest Russian cities]
Result: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_and_towns_in_Russia_by_population
What's older, a redwood or a cypress? Cypresses (4500 years old is oldest known) are older than redwoods (2200 years old is oldest known)
Search: [cypress tree age]
Result: http://www.payvand.com/news/08/apr/1253.html
Search: [redwood tree age]
Result: http://www.sempervirens.org/sequoiasemp.htm
What's the oldest living thing and how old is it? The bristlecone pine, living for 5,000-11,000 years
Search: [oldest living thing]
Result: http://waynesword.palomar.edu/ww0601.htm
http://hubpages.com/hub/Oldest_living_thing
Who sings "Queen of Hearts"? Juice Newton
Search: ["queen of hearts" song]
On results page: http://www.google.com/search? =%22queen+of+hearts%22+song
What kind of bird is that flying over there? A turkey vulture
Search: [turkey vulture flying] on Google image search
Pictures that match on results page: http://images.google.com/images?q=turkey%20vulture%20flying
Is the LF in San Francisco on Union Square or Union Street? 1870 Union Street
Search: [lf san francisco]
Address on results page: http://www.google.com/search?q=lf+san+francisco
What are the dance steps to the Charleston? Show in video below
Search : [Charleston dance demonstration]
Video result: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=zzyg7l6qxNQ
What day of the week was The Lawrence Welk Show on? Saturday
Search: [lawrence welk show]
Result: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lawrence_Welk_Show
What are the lyrics to "In the Mood"?
"In the mood, that's what he told me,
In the mood, and when he told me,
In the mood, my heart was skippin',
It didn't take me long to say "I'm in the mood now"."
Search: ["in the mood" lyrics]
Result: http://www.lyricsdepot.com/glenn-miller/in-the-mood.html
How does Coumadin differ from aspirin in its blood thinning effects? Aspirin is an anti-platelet agent that prevents clotting. Coumadin also prevents clotting but the mechanism is different. Both thin the blood, but Coumadin is stronger and much more effective in certain instances like atrial fibrillation.
Search: [aspirin Coumadin how different]
Result: http://www.stmaryhealthcare.org/body.cfm?id=250
What was the story behind the naming of the number "googol"?
Search: [number googol named]
Result: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quintillion#The_googol_family
Posted by Marissa Mayer, VP, Search Products & User Experience
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鹅是一个兵，来自老百姓
鹅不是老大，天才是老大
您无所不谈，鹅也不例外
鹅是参考消息@无所不坛
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