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Fraying at the edges
如履薄冰
Jul 10th 2008
From The Economist print edition
In neither Tibet nor Taiwan are things going as well for China as its leaders would like
西藏、台湾的事态发展并非如中国领导人希望的那样如意。
ReutersIT HAS been a good few days for the self-esteem of China's leaders. Their hopes of winning acceptance for their view of Tibet and of coaxing Taiwan into the embrace of the "motherland" both seem to have become a little more likely. But look closer. In fact both remain distant dreams.
（路透社）这几天来中国领导人又长了颜面。他们希望他们对西藏的态度得到认可，希望让台湾回到祖国的怀抱，这两件大事看来都越来越有望实现，但近而观之，却还是遥不可及。
As President Hu Jintao was feted at the G8 summit in Japan, China secured two important affirmative RSVPs to the opening of the Olympic games in Beijing next month. George Bush was never likely to be a party-pooper. But France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, had suggested his attendance hinged on China's behaviour in Tibet. He, too, will turn up, bearing tribute to China's growing sporting, commercial and diplomatic clout.
胡锦涛在日本召开的八国首脑会议上风光无限，两位重要领导人确认了要参加下个月北京奥运会的开幕式。乔治•布什向来不爱扫人兴致。法国总统尼古拉•萨科奇曾经还表示，他是否出席奥运会开幕式要看中国对西藏的行动，现在却迫于中国日益增长的体育、商业和外交实力，表示自己一定会出席开幕式。
Over Taiwan, the progress is more than symbolic. The opening of regular charter flights across the Taiwan Strait, allowing thousands of mainland tourists to visit the island, is the most important of a number of confidence-building measures since the victory of Ma Ying-jeou and his China-leaning party, the Kuomintang (KMT), in the presidential election in March (see article and article). After the bellicose sniping at the pro-independence administration of Chen Shui-bian, China seems positively lovey-dovey towards his successor.
台海关系的进展不仅仅是表面文章。大陆和台湾开始了飞机直航，允许成千上万的内地游客到台湾旅行，都是一系列信心建立机制中的重要措施。马英九及其亲大陆的国民党3月份选举获胜之后，建立了这一信心建立机制。之前中国对及力实现台独的陈水扁政府猛烈抨击，如今似乎对其后任青睐有加。
On Tibet, China appears to have won over foreign governments by making only the most token of concessions. It has reopened low-level talks with representatives of the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader. But it has barely even pretended that these might lead to a political settlement. At the latest round it refused even to issue an anodyne joint statement, lest this be deemed to accord its Tibetan interlocutors some sort of official status. In Tibet it has quelled unrest and dissent with the time-honoured repression it knows best: mass detention, heavy security and "patriotic education campaigns" (see article). China can boast that "calm" has returned.
在西藏问题上，中国只是做了象征性的让步来赢得外国政府的认同，重启与西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛的底层谈判，而这样的谈判没有丝毫会解决政治问题的迹象。在最近一轮的会谈中，中国拒绝作出任何安慰性的共同宣言，以防此行被认为是给了西藏对话者某种合法地位。在西藏，中国政府平息了暴乱，镇压异见，用的是其最擅长的、经久不衰的方法：大量拘禁，重兵把守和爱国主义教育。中国可以沾沾自喜地宣称西藏已恢复"平静"。
The calm of the prison yard, however, is no long-term solution to the Tibet problem, which is that large numbers of Tibetans feel economically disadvantaged and politically ignored. Order imposed through violence, or the threat of violence, will only heighten pro-independence sentiment.
但是，高压之下的平静不是解决西藏问题的长远之计，还有很多西藏人感到自己在经济上落后。在政治上被忽略。用暴力，或是以威胁要使用暴力来维持秩序，最终坚定更多人追求独立的决心。
The same holds true for Taiwan, even during the present honeymoon. China has never renounced what it says is its right to take Taiwan by force if peaceful blandishments fail. Adding weight to the threat are hundreds of missiles trained on Taiwan. Such bullying helps ensure that a huge majority in Taiwan opposes imminent unification. The vote in March was indeed partly a reaction to the recent cross-strait tensions, and an endorsement of closer economic ties with the mainland at a time of faltering growth. But the KMT won not because it was promising unification, but because it seemed to have the better tactics for perpetuating Taiwan's de facto independence.
对台湾也是同样，即使是在最近的蜜月期也不例外。如果和平统一的努力失败，中国决不放弃对台湾使用武力的权利，更以成百上千的导弹相威胁。正是这种强权方式使得台湾大众反对立即统一。三月的选举结果，一来是是受前期两岸关系的紧张局面的影响，二来是在经济增长不稳定的时期，台湾人民也希望密切与内地的经济往来。然而，国民党赢得了选举并不是因为其承诺要两岸统一，而是因为其有更高明的手段让台湾永久保持实质上的独立状态。
Sovereign remedies
解决主权问题的灵丹妙药
Chinese officials understand that well enough. But in helping generate popular euphoria around the latest "breakthroughs" with Taiwan, they are taking a risk. Taiwan is a big unfinished nationalist project at a time when Chinese nationalism is gaining potency. The anger recently directed at foreigners over their criticism of China's behaviour in Tibet could turn on China's own government. Its present policy relies on Taiwan's refraining from any "provocation". This is dangerously fragile: better to make clear that "reunification" is a long-term goal, to be achieved, if at all, through peaceful means. As with Tibet, that means being ready to show a little flexibility over that most sensitive of issues, sovereignty. China's emergence, as symbolised by the Olympics, will otherwise continue to be hampered by the instability in its own backyard.
中国官员对此再清楚不过了。但是，为了在最近台海关系赢得"突破性"进展的时候营造欢欣鼓舞的氛围，他们宁愿冒险。台湾问题尚未解决，中国的爱国主义情绪高涨。现在中国人听到外国人批评中国在西藏的行为，就怒气冲天，今后这种愤怒或许会转嫁到中国政府的头上。中国现在的政策是依赖台湾的配合，希望台湾不要出什么乱子。这样的政策十分危险，不堪一击，还不如清楚的表明，两岸统一是长远目标，完全应该以和平方式来实现。在西藏问题上，和平手段将在最敏感的主权问题上表现出一些灵活性。中国在日益崛起，奥运就是一个象征，然而如果不解决好上述问题，后院起火将会不断困扰着中国的发展。
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